Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 34.657865 37.597724 40.834390 44.694488 49.216652 54.403370 60.887758
2025-07-06 29.628186 33.323802 37.663222 43.237408 50.370021 59.440461 72.306117
2025-07-13 28.013137 32.367768 37.739176 45.064520 55.174302 69.317315 92.129853
2025-07-20 25.868509 30.396649 36.159704 44.335998 56.227009 74.072304 105.988049
2025-07-27 25.232250 30.210077 36.773983 46.527037 61.647629 86.499880 137.964176
2025-08-03 24.293077 29.500416 36.556008 47.429957 65.201652 96.838985 172.432912
2025-08-10 23.274552 28.577758 35.919012 47.573063 67.481329 105.518084 210.110883
2025-08-17 22.008332 27.212349 34.515355 46.333357 67.125500 108.852510 236.539431
2025-08-24 20.879557 25.965429 33.183791 45.054423 66.472440 111.365435 263.496967
2025-08-31 20.639528 25.958026 33.677332 46.790330 71.718568 129.153819 379.662427
2025-09-07 19.750524 24.956636 32.583955 45.721024 71.272614 132.762475 439.362992
2025-09-14 18.982064 24.092035 31.645345 44.828412 71.046858 136.961403 518.506259
2025-09-21 17.938331 22.892036 30.295512 43.433434 70.315566 141.925858 661.918454
2025-09-28 16.958356 21.752410 28.991994 42.043916 69.498247 147.050119 889.569212
2025-10-05 16.712594 21.688846 29.385128 43.785149 76.176240 182.855680 3645.130068
2025-10-12 16.033391 20.917519 28.554022 43.091157 76.865462 197.431051 27465.689652
2025-10-19 15.904825 20.983348 29.110891 45.177212 85.342663 260.809454 NaN
2025-10-26 15.577202 20.712262 29.066294 46.035884 90.875712 324.224476 NaN
2025-11-02 15.164707 20.280191 28.704395 46.171924 94.372234 387.092433 NaN
2025-11-09 14.592104 19.561531 27.787254 44.992949 93.373931 409.433869 NaN
2025-11-16 14.054043 18.876509 26.891767 43.775534 91.985585 427.227295 NaN
2025-11-23 13.950681 18.893862 27.257201 45.427661 101.051644 636.876968 NaN
2025-11-30 13.499794 18.317557 26.501735 44.410215 100.147202 687.945552 NaN